A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
According to Opta, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
