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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.